The hottest coal inventory system may be fully imp

2022-07-30
  • Detail

The coal inventory system may be fully implemented by the end of September. Release date: Source: Securities editor: Yu Jia browsing times: 1988 copyright and disclaimer core tip: Recently, in order to prevent large fluctuations in coal prices, the national development and Reform Commission issued a draft for comments on the coal inventory system. Market participants expect that the coal inventory system may be fully implemented before the end of September and implemented in the peak season of coal consumption in winter to ensure the flexibility of market regulation

[China Packaging News] although the coal market has entered the traditional off-season, the coal market and coal prices are still hot

recently, in order to prevent large fluctuations in coal prices, the national development and Reform Commission issued a draft for comments on the coal inventory system. Market participants expect that the coal inventory system may be fully implemented before the end of September and implemented in the peak season of coal consumption in winter to ensure the flexibility of market regulation

at the same time, since the end of August, the continuous upgrading of environmental protection and production restriction and the shutdown and rectification of coal mines in Shanxi and other places have put the coal supply in a tight state, and the coal price has also been quite strong recently

the latest Bohai Rim thermal coal price index rose by 1 yuan/ton month on month. This is its first rebound after three consecutive periods of decline

coal inventory system

may be implemented at the end of September

analysts said that at present, there is a demand for the power plant to continue to replenish the inventory, which supports the high coal price. At the same time, it is expected that this year's winter storage procurement will probably be advanced, which will also support the strengthening of coal prices

since 2017, the coal price has continued to rise. In order to stabilize the coal price without significant fluctuations, the national development and Reform Commission has made another "new move"

On August 28, the national development and Reform Commission drafted the guiding opinions on establishing and improving the minimum and maximum coal inventory system and relevant assessment methods (Draft for comments) to solicit opinions from the public

the guidance points out that when the price of thermal coal is in the green area, the minimum coal storage capacity of not less than 5-day design output should be maintained; When the price of thermal coal falls sharply beyond the lower limit of the green area, the coal mine shall maintain the minimum coal storage capacity not lower than the 7-day design output; When the price of thermal coal rises sharply beyond the upper limit of the green area, the coal storage capacity of the coal mine may not be higher than the 3-day design output

for coal operating enterprises, coal operating enterprises engaged in raw coal, coal blending, washing and distribution of briquette processing products, in principle, the minimum inventory shall not be less than the daily operating volume of the previous year for three days. When the market is in short supply and the price of thermal coal rises sharply beyond the upper limit of the green area, the maximum inventory of coal operating enterprises shall not exceed the average monthly operating volume of the previous year in principle

xushinan, an analyst at Zhongyu information, said that the reasons for the high coal price were firstly the sudden increase in demand exceeding expectations, and secondly the increase in market supply and the release of production capacity were difficult to improve. Therefore, according to the current market situation, the market demand was good and coal enterprises were difficult to follow up production, which was mostly caused by the low inventory and zero inventory of coal enterprises

therefore, Lian Weiliang, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, mentioned at the 2017 national coal trade fair that the state will follow the example of salt industry and other industries to promote the establishment of enterprise coal inventory system and stipulate the minimum and maximum inventory, which will help to avoid sharp price fluctuations

Panhanxiang, a researcher of Yimei Research Institute, said that the coal inventory system is intended to ensure the flexibility of market regulation and avoid the "roller coaster" of coal prices by ensuring the intermediate inventory of the whole society

a number of market participants told that it is expected that the coal inventory system will be fully implemented before the end of September, and the downstream will also be promoted to actively replenish inventory at that time

upgrading of environmental protection and production restriction

led to a rebound in coal prices

in September, although coal consumption entered the off-season, the coal supply side was still in a tight state due to the upgrading of environmental protection and production restriction

On August 29, the work safety committee of the State Council issued the notice of the work safety committee of the State Council on carrying out the comprehensive supervision of the national work safety inspection. From September to the end of the 19th national congress, the national work safety inspection will be carried out continuously

On August 31, the State Council once again stated that it was necessary to resolutely eliminate backward production capacity in the coal industry and prevent blind expansion of production in the case of high coal prices

at the same time, in view of the recent frequent occurrence of coal mine accidents, Shanxi Province requires that all 10 types of coal mines in the province be shut down for rectification. As this is the characteristic of ordinary polyethylene food preservative film, Anpeng, an analyst at GF Securities, believes that the above measures reflect the government's attitude and determination to reduce coal production capacity. It is expected that the industry supply will continue to be limited before the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. In the short term, the recent performance of thermal coal is significantly better than expected, and it is expected that the off-season is not light

it is worth mentioning that during the reporting period (August 30 to September 5, 2017), the Bohai Rim thermal coal price index closed at 580 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton month on month. The price index rebounded for the first time after three consecutive periods of decline

Qi Bo, a coal analyst in Qinhuangdao, said that with the gradual disappearance of the high temperature in summer, the daily consumption of power plants fell to below 700000 tons, and the number of days available for coal storage gradually rose to more than 16 days. However, according to the requirements for 20 days of coal storage in coal-fired power plants through iron water transportation in the guiding opinions on establishing and improving the minimum and maximum coal inventory system, as well as concerns about the subsequent trend of coal prices, The power plant still needs to continue to supplement the storage, which supports the high coal price

it should also be pointed out that the summer consumption peak has just ended, and the coal inventory of ports and power plants is generally low. From the daily consumption level of more than 750000 tons/day of the six coastal power plants last week, it is at an obvious high compared with the same period in previous years

therefore, objectively speaking, 91 Influence of fixture; The downstream reaches 32% in the first ten days of the month; There is a demand for replenishment at the first end of the market share of the household appliance industry. With the downstream procurement, the coal price will also remain strong

"considering the procurement cycle, it is expected that this year's winter storage procurement will probably be ahead of schedule, which will also support the strengthening of coal prices at that time." Panhanxiang also pointed out that although the market demand may weaken further in the off-season, considering the role of multiple influencing factors in the current market, it has formed a certain support for the coal price. According to the recent market understanding, the bearish expectation of the market in the off-season has been significantly weakened, and based on the optimistic judgment on the trend of coal prices in the fourth quarter, some hoarding has even occurred. Therefore, it is expected that the trend of coal prices in September will be more volatile

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI